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Distribution of flowers visited per raceme, high flower standing crop

Flowers per raceme

Observed %

Conditional probability

Expected %

1

56.9

0.56

57

2

22.2

0.51

25

3

11.1

0.53

10

4

5.6

0.57

5

5

2.8

0.67

2

Average

0.57

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Slide 23 of 31
Notes:

Here are the percentages for the early season distribution that you just saw. As noted in the previous slide, each value is about half the previous value. In fact the conditional probability of moving off of a raceme is about the same no matter how many flowers the bee has already visited. If we take the average conditional probability of leaving the raceme, we can generate an expected distribution of flowers visited per raceme that is almost identical to the observed distribution.
The conditional probability of leaving the raceme is almost the same as the 55% probability of leaving the plant. I’m not sure if that is a coincidence or not, but it suggests that we can explain the observed pattern of # of flowers visited per raceme with a simple movement rule: Move off the raceme or the plant 55-57% of the time and stay 43-45% of the time. Using this movement rule, we get a distribution of flowers visited per raceme that is very close to the observed distribution.